<html><head></head><body><div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:16px"><div id="yiv1338369503"><div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_22907"><div style="color:#000;background-color:#fff;font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:16px;" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_22906"><div id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_17402" class="yiv1338369503"><font size="2" style="font-family:Tahoma;" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21439" class="yiv1338369503">Dear colleagues,</font></div><div style="font-family:Tahoma;font-size:13.3333px;" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21441" class="yiv1338369503"><font size="2" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21443" class="yiv1338369503"><br id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21445" class="yiv1338369503"></font></div><div style="font-family:Tahoma;font-size:13.3333px;" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21441" class="yiv1338369503"><font size="2" class="yiv1338369503"><br></font></div><div style="font-family:Tahoma;font-size:13.3333px;" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21447" class="yiv1338369503"><font size="2" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21449" class="yiv1338369503">We are pleased to announce the on-line publication of the following paper in the Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences.</font></div><div style="font-family:Tahoma;font-size:13.3333px;" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21451" class="yiv1338369503"><font size="2" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21453" class="yiv1338369503"><br id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21455" class="yiv1338369503"></font></div><div style="font-family:Tahoma;font-size:13.3333px;" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21457" class="yiv1338369503"><font size="2" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21459" class="yiv1338369503"><div id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21461" class="yiv1338369503">Cook, R.M. and Trijoulet, V. (2016). "The effects of grey seal predation and commercial fishing on the recovery of a depleted cod stock." Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. DOI <span style="color:rgb(51, 51, 51);line-height:14.4px;" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21463" class="yiv1338369503">10.1139/cjfas-2015-0423</span> </div><div id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21465" class="yiv1338369503"><br id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21467" class="yiv1338369503"></div><div id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21469" class="yiv1338369503"><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/cjfas-2015-0423?src=recsys#.Vt7gSfmLS71" title="http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/cjfas-2015-0423?src=recsys#.Vt7gSfmLS71Ctrl+Click to follow link" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21471" class="yiv1338369503">http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/cjfas-2015-0423?src=recsys#.Vt7gSfmLS71</a></div><div id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21473" class="yiv1338369503"><br></div></font></div><div style="font-family:Tahoma;font-size:13.3333px;" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21481" class="yiv1338369503"><font size="2" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21483" class="yiv1338369503">Abstract:</font></div><div style="font-family:Tahoma;font-size:13.3333px;" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21434" class="yiv1338369503"><font size="2" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21485" class="yiv1338369503"><span style="color:rgb(51, 51, 51);line-height:14.4px;" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21487" class="yiv1338369503">Cod (<i id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21939">Gadus morhua</i>) are preyed upon by grey seals (<i id="yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_22952">Halichoerus grypus</i>) and there is debate over the impact this has had on the decline of stocks and their prospects for recovery. We analysed a depleted stock to the West of Scotland and show that seal predation rate is consistent with a type II functional response. Forward projections of a model including the functional response under varying levels of fishing and seal population size suggest that stock recovery is possible under current conditions but there is a modest probability that the stock will decline further in both the short and long term. The potential recovery is fragile and sensitive to relatively small increases in either fishing or seal predation. Forward projection models that exclude the functional response estimate a lower probability of stock decline and may underestimate the risk to the stock. At low stock sizes and high fishing mortality rates functional response models project slower recovery but the opposite is true at low fishing mortality.</span><br id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21489" class="yiv1338369503"></font><div id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21491" class="yiv1338369503"><font size="2" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21493" class="yiv1338369503"><br id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21495" class="yiv1338369503"></font></div><div id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21497" class="yiv1338369503"><font size="2" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21499" class="yiv1338369503"><br id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21501" class="yiv1338369503"></font></div><div id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21503" class="yiv1338369503"><font size="2" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21505" class="yiv1338369503">Best regards,</font></div><div id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21507" class="yiv1338369503"><font size="2" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21509" class="yiv1338369503"><br id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21511" class="yiv1338369503"></font></div><div id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21432" class="yiv1338369503"><div class="yiv1338369503" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21430"><font size="2" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21513" class="yiv1338369503"></font><div class="yiv1338369503" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21429" dir="ltr"><font size="2" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21428" class="yiv1338369503"><br id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21515" class="yiv1338369503">Vanessa Trijoulet<br id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21517" class="yiv1338369503">PhD student<br id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21519" class="yiv1338369503">Department of Mathematics and Statistics<br id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21521" class="yiv1338369503">University of Strathclyde<br id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21523" class="yiv1338369503">Livingstone Tower, 26 Richmond Street,<br id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21525" class="yiv1338369503">Glasgow, G1 1XH, Scotland<br id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21527" class="yiv1338369503">Tel: +44 (0)141 548 3385<br id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21529" class="yiv1338369503"><span style="line-height:18.4px;" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21427" class="yiv1338369503"><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://vanessatrijoulet.wordpress.com/" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21423">Vanessa Trijoulet</a></span></font></div><div style="width:450px;font-family:'Georgia', 'Times', 'Times New Roman', 'serif';margin-top:5px;margin-bottom:5px;background-color:#ffffff;" id="yiv1338369503enhancrCard_0" class="yiv1338369503link-enhancr-attachment yiv1338369503link-enhancr-element yiv1338369503richcompose-card"><table class="yiv1338369503link-enhancr-element" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" style="width:450px;height:170px;position:relative;display:block;" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21819"><tbody id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21818"><tr class="yiv1338369503link-enhancr-element" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21942"><td class="yiv1338369503link-enhancr-element" colspan="8" style="height:1px;background-color:#e5e5e5;font-size:1px;border-collapse:collapse;" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21941"><div class="yiv1338369503link-enhancr-element" style="height:1px;background-color:#e5e5e5;font-size:1px;line-height:0px;" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21940"> </div></td></tr><tr class="yiv1338369503link-enhancr-element" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21830"><td rowspan="5" class="yiv1338369503link-enhancr-element" style="width:1px;background-color:#e5e5e5;font-size:1pt;border-collapse:collapse;"><div class="yiv1338369503link-enhancr-element" style="width:1px;background-color:#e5e5e5;font-size:1pt;"> </div></td><td class="yiv1338369503link-enhancr-element yiv1338369503link-enhancr-image-wrap yiv1338369503enhancr-image-crop" rowspan="5" style="vertical-align:middle;width:168px;height:168px;border-collapse:collapse;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21834"><div class="yiv1338369503link-enhancr-element" style="width:168px;" align="center" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21833"><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://vanessatrijoulet.wordpress.com/" class="yiv1338369503link-enhancr-card-urlWrapper yiv1338369503link-enhancr-element" style="text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;color:#000000;" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21832"><img alt="image" src="https://s.yimg.com/vv//api/res/1.2/SmKW8GogdZyowibaRuMN0A--/YXBwaWQ9bWFpbDtmaT1maWxsO2g9MTY4O3c9MTY4/https://s0.wp.com/i/blank.jpg.cf.jpg" class="yiv1338369503link-enhancr-thumbnail-image yiv1338369503link-enhancr-element yiv1338369503yahoo-ignore-inline-image" width="168" height="168" style="display:block;margin:auto;" id="yiv1338369503yui_3_16_0_1_1457429370077_21831"></a></div></td><td rowspan="5" class="yiv1338369503link-enhancr-element" style="width:1px;background-color: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