[MARMAM] New publication: Estimating population size

Heloíse Pavanato helopavanato at gmail.com
Tue Mar 21 16:00:32 PDT 2023


Dear colleagues,

On behalf of my co-authors, I'm pleased to share with you our latest
open-access publication on interface between ecology and statistics that
may be of interest to some of you, particularly for capture-recapture and
distance sampling developers and users.

Schofield M, Barker RJ, Link WA, Pavanato H. 2023. Estimating population
size: the importance of model and estimator choice. Biometrics, 1-15. DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.13828

Abstract: We consider estimator and model choice when estimating abundance
from capture–recapture data. Our work is motivated by a mark–recapture
distance sampling example, where model and estimator choice led to
unexpectedly large disparities in the estimates. To understand these
differences, we look at three estimation strategies (maximum likelihood
estimation, conditional maximum likelihood estimation, and Bayesian
estimation) for both binomial and Poisson Models. We show that assuming the
data have a binomial or multinomial distribution introduces implicit and
unnoticed assumptions that are not addressed when fitting with maximum
likelihood estimation. This can have an important effect in finite samples,
particularly if our data arise from multiple populations.We relate these
results to those of restricted maximum likelihood in linear mixed effects
models.

If you have any questions, please contact me at helopavanato at gmail.com

Kind regards,
Heloise
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