[MARMAM] Publication Announcement: Subseasonal forecasts provide a powerful tool for dynamic marine mammal management

Julia Stepanuk julia.stepanuk at stonybrook.edu
Thu Oct 13 10:27:03 PDT 2022


We are excited to announce the open access publication of our manuscript
"Subseasonal forecasts provide a powerful tool for dynamic marine mammal
management" in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment.

The publication is available here:

ABSTRACT: Adaptive approaches are needed to effectively manage dynamic
marine systems, and ecological forecasts can help managers anticipate when
and where conservation issues are likely to arise in the future. The recent
development of subseasonal global environmental forecasts provides an
opportunity to inform management by forecasting species distributions in
advance over operational timeframes. We demonstrate the utility of
environmental forecasts for managing marine mammals by integrating species
distribution models with subseasonal forecasts to predict the arrival of
migratory humpback whales (*Megaptera novaeangliae*) at foraging grounds in
the Northeast US. Environmental forecasts showed high model skill at lead
times of up to 2 weeks and resulting humpback whale models performed well
in predicting humpback arrival. Forecasts of whale distribution can shape
management efforts to minimize both impacts on whales and economic costs.
Applying subseasonal forecasts to anticipate future risk presents a
powerful tool for the dynamic management of marine mammals.

Julia Stepanuk, PhD

Julia Stepanuk (she/her)
Quantitative Ecologist
Biodiversity Research Institute
PhD, MS, Stony Brook University

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