[MARMAM] Symposium - Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Risk Assessment and the Best Available Science

Gina K. Himes Boor gkhimesboor at montana.edu
Mon Jan 27 13:55:59 PST 2014





20-21 MARCH 2014





You are cordially invited to attend the Daniel Goodman Memorial Symposium,
Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Risk Assessment and the Best Available
Science.  We have a fantastic group of speakers lined up to discuss this
theme as it applies to marine mammal and fisheries management, Endangered
Species Act policy and management, ecosystem modeling, Bayesian statistics,
and environmental risk assessment. The symposium was inspired by the work of
the late Dr. Daniel Goodman, much of whose applied work was focused on
marine mammal and fisheries conservation, and has been designed to honor his
contributions to these topics and to explore how his work and ideas might be
used to improve natural resource decision-making and the science of
conservation biology. This symposium will be relevant to anyone working on
environmental or natural resource management and policy issues. The
symposium will take place at the Museum of the Rockies on the Montana State
University campus in Bozeman, MT, March 20-21, 2014. To register for the
symposium and to find a detailed symposium agenda, information about
discounted hotel rooms, and other travel details, visit our website


Thanks to our generous sponsors, there will be no charge to attend the
symposium or the Thursday-evening reception; we only ask that you register
so we know how many people to expect. If you are a student or know of any
students who may be interested in the topics covered in the symposium, we
have four travel grants available to help cover or defray the cost of
attending the symposium. (Post-docs may also apply, but will be given lower
priority than students.)  See the Student Travel Grant page on our website
for more details. Travel grant applications will be due February 5th. 


We hope to see you there.





"Uncertainty is pervasive in natural resource management; attainment of the
management goals often depends both on present quantities that cannot be
measured accurately and on future environmental disturbances that cannot be
predicted accurately. When we make management decisions under such
circumstances, we recognize that the outcome may be quite different from our
intentions, and we perceive this possibility as risk. But, decisions must be
made all the same, so we attempt to take the uncertainty, and hence the
risk, into account in our decision, through bet hedging and setting margins
of safety..[T]he decision process can still be, in its own way, an exact
science, notwithstanding the uncertainty. Given that we cannot eradicate
uncertainty, the sense in which decision making under uncertainty can be an
exact science is a matter of coping with the uncertainty in a way that is
recognizably optimal."

                -Dr. Daniel Goodman, 1945-2012

                (Goodman 2002)



Goodman, D. 2002. Uncertainty, risk, and decision: the PVA example. In J.M.
Berkson L.L. Kline, and D.J. Orth, editors, Incorporating uncertainty into
fishery models. American Fisheries Society, Bethesda, Maryland.


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